WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 Rep. Lauren Boebert's grip on Colorado's 3rd Congressional District didn't seem in question heading into last year's midterms. But in the end, the congresswoman who gained a national reputation as a combative member of the 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥 movement won reelection by just 564 votes.
鈥淭his was supposed to be a slam dunk for the Republican candidate, the way the district is designed," said , a former state senator who unsuccessfully challenged in the GOP primary last June.
Boebert's near miss was emblematic of the Republicans confronted in 2022 and may face again in 2024. While former President Donald Trump holds a , there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members.
Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, shows. Still, the extensive national survey finds these Republicans made up a larger percentage of those who opted not to support a candidate in House races. A sliver of them showed their opposition to Trump for a second time, backing Democrat for president in 2020 and Democratic House candidates in 2022.
In a political climate where competitive elections are nationalized and decided by narrow margins, can take these voters for granted.
said he knew there was a 鈥渇airly unique鈥 opening for a more conservative Democrat to connect with Colorado voters who did not like Boebert鈥檚 aggressive political style.
鈥淚 spent most of my time trying to convince people I was a safe enough choice, not just to leave the ballot blank ... but actually vote for a non-Republican for the first time ever or in a really long time,鈥 said Frisch, who has already announced he will run again in 2024.
The findings suggest Democrats, too, may need to be wary of the messaging against 鈥淢AGA Republicans,鈥 whom before the November elections and is poised to do again in a 2024 campaign. Most of those who don't identify with the movement don鈥檛 seem to find that compelling. Voters who do may be eager to revert to a Republican candidate who represents their traditional conservative values.
Republican strategist Alex Conant suggested GOP candidates cannot count on these voters so long as Trump is involved in politics. But 2024 can be different.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no reason that the Republican nominee in 2024 can鈥檛 put together a coalition that includes Trump鈥檚 base and moderate Republicans and independents,鈥 he said.
Conant and others pointed to examples of Republican governors 鈥 in Florida, in Ohio and in Georgia 鈥 who were able to do that in 2022.
In Ohio and Georgia, for example, the two governors outperformed Republican candidates for Senate who were endorsed by Trump. DeWine earned nearly 390,000 votes more than , who won an open seat, and Kemp received 200,000-plus more votes in the general election than did , who failed to unseat a Democratic incumbent in a later runoff.
According to VoteCast, 10% of Republican voters who don鈥檛 identify as 鈥淢AGA Republicans鈥 voted for Democratic House candidates nationwide, compared with 2% of those who embrace that label.
Overall, 4% of Republicans backed Democratic candidates. That percentage swelled in competitive races for Senate and governor where far-right candidates were on the ballot, including as many as 13% of Republicans in Arizona, 16% in Colorado and 18% in Pennsylvania, and 11% in Michigan.
The Lincoln Project, a conservative group that staunchly opposes Trump, has targeted this voting bloc in elections. Co-founder Rick Wilson said it鈥檚 a 鈥渘arrow pathway, but a meaningful one鈥 to electing pro-democracy, anti-extremist candidates, one that he thinks has expanded since 2020 because of the Supreme Court鈥檚 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Still, partisanship can be 鈥渟ticky,鈥 Wilson said, and traditional Republicans value checks and balances in Washington, driving disaffected conservative voters to support Republicans as an offset to Democrats.
VoteCast shows most Republicans voted for Republicans, even if they did so .
Republicans who don鈥檛 identify with the MAGA movement and decided to back Republican candidates mostly say they didn鈥檛 consider Trump, good or bad, when they voted. Only about half are positive in ratings of Trump himself, but most are favorable toward the party and say the GOP tends to try to do what鈥檚 right. About two-thirds of them say they voted to show opposition to Biden.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e where I am ... what choice do we have?鈥 said GOP strategist Rick Tyler. 鈥淭here are many in the Republican Party who would love to not vote Republican, but they can鈥檛 vote Democrat because they don鈥檛 believe in where Democrats want to take the country.鈥
That may have helped some Republican candidates in Republican-leaning districts oust Democrats who were elected in the Trump era.
In November, then-state Sen. defeated two-term Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in a district centered in Virginia Beach, Virginia, just two years after a Democratic presidential candidate carried the city for the first time since 1964. Kiggans the self-proclaimed 鈥淢AGA candidate鈥 in the Republican primary, and campaign operatives pointed to Kiggans as a 鈥渄isciplined鈥 candidate focused on kitchen table issues.
Her also tied Luria to Biden and then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as Luria herself campaigned on investigating the at the U.S. Capitol and called Kiggans an election denier. Kiggans shied away from explicitly repeating Trump's false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, but she refused to publicly reject them.
Non-MAGA Republicans are more likely than MAGA Republicans to say that Biden was legitimately elected president. They also are more likely to say they decided over the course of the campaign which candidate they would back, as compared with knowing all along.
Back in Colorado, Karen Davis, 58, was a lifelong Republican until a few years ago, when she changed her voter registration because of the 鈥渁larming鈥 rhetoric of the party, particularly the far-right. Her vote for Biden in 2020 was more of a vote 鈥渁gainst鈥 Trump, she said.
And last year, she backed Frisch over Boebert.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 really sad is you鈥檙e not excited about any of these candidates,鈥 said Davis, who runs a flooring business in Grand Junction, Colorado, with her husband. 鈥淚f the Republicans could get a candidate I was excited about, I would absolutely vote for them.鈥
To her, that鈥檚 鈥渟omebody who鈥檚 a fiscal conservative but a moderate in every other way,鈥 Davis said. 鈥淭hey can鈥檛 win me back with Donald Trump.鈥
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Find the AP’s coverage of the 2022 midterm elections at . Learn more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at .
