GUATEMALA CITY (AP) 鈥 For much of Guatemala鈥檚 troubled electoral campaign, authorities seemed determined to limit voters鈥 options to a range of presidential hopefuls unlikely to shake up a corrupt political system, keeping several candidates seen as threats off the ballot.
In part, the strategy seemed to work. The man leading polls a month before the first round election in June was kept off the ballot, and three-time candidate and former first lady Sandra Torres, an opponent-turned-ally of outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei, was the lead vote-getter in the vote, sending her to Sunday's presidential runoff.
But one candidate campaigning against the system had flown so far under the radar that no one paid attention to him . Now Bernardo Ar茅valo is facing off against Torres on Sunday with polls suggesting he could very well win.
Ar茅valo's success appeared to rattle authorities. Almost immediately, a court ordered a review of precinct vote tallies, the , and a judge briefly suspended the party鈥檚 legal status.
Torres launched a blistering second stage campaign painting the lawmaker and son of ex-President Juan Jos茅 Ar茅valo as a bent on installing a totalitarian communist regime.
For some voters, it made the choice even clearer. In Torres鈥 attempts to create an Ar茅valo bogeyman, she elevated his status as an outsider and threat to a system most Guatemalans are desperate to eradicate.
鈥淲hat we are wagering Sunday is the survival of our democracy,鈥 said political analyst Marielos Chang, explaining that Guatemala could become like other Central American countries simulating functioning democracy through elections while eroding democratic institutions.
Perceptions among Guatemalans that the country鈥檚 political and economic elite are corrupt and in cahoots with organized crime heightened after then-President Jimmy Morales booted a highly successful U.N.-backed anti-corruption mission from Guatemala in 2019.
Since then, Morales鈥 administration and now Giammattei鈥檚 have taken control of the justice system and set the Attorney General鈥檚 Office against those who had led the anti-corruption fight. More than two-dozen prosecutors and judges have fled into exile.
The U.S. government has and her anti-corruption prosecutor for alleged involvement in 鈥渟ignificant corruption.鈥
Opinion polls released in Guatemala this week have showed Ar茅valo ahead by a wide margin.
At his campaign鈥檚 closing event Wednesday night, Ar茅valo told thousands gathered in the capital鈥檚 central square that 鈥渏ust like we said two months ago, they鈥檙e not going to see us coming. We鈥檙e going to be the surprise and a people who demand their dignity cannot be stopped.鈥
Edgar Ortiz, the legal director of the Guatemala-based Liberty and Development Foundation, said that according to his group's polling nearly half of those surveyed had an unfavorable view of Torres. Her attacks on Ar茅valo haven't resonated because voters are in the mood to punish traditional parties, Ortiz said.
That is less true among older, poorer voters in rural areas who make up Torres鈥 most loyal support base. They remember the free bags of food staples they received each month when she was first lady overseeing the country鈥檚 social services. And the talk of legalizing same-sex marriage and abortion they鈥檝e heard Torres spread about Ar茅valo worries them.
Just days before the vote, Dora Hern谩ndez was still agonizing over her decision. She was one of those who helped Ar茅valo make it to the runoff, voting for him in the first round because of his promise to pursue the corrupt.
鈥淲ith that candidate (Ar茅valo), Guatemala could be transformed,鈥 she recalled thinking.
More recently though, she had heard Torres saying Ar茅valo was a threat to Guatemalan families. The wife of an Anglican minister, she does not support same-sex marriage.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know if it鈥檚 the other party making a big negative campaign with that or if there鈥檚 really something to it,鈥 said the 46-year-old homemaker from the town of Gualan in eastern Guatemala.
In the rural area where she lives, everyone is supporting Torres, she said, because they are poor and Torres has promised bags of food and other support. But she harbors doubts about Torres too.
On Tuesday, , joining in her description of the Seed Movement as an existential threat to Guatemala鈥檚 democracy. The same group similarly drummed up fear over Torres during her first two bids for the presidency.
Cynical reversals like that lead others to dismiss it as political theater.
Javier Zepeda was initially interested in businessman Carlos Pi帽eda, whose candidacy was ended by the courts barely a month before the first round of voting at a time when polls showed him to be the frontrunner. With Pineda out, the 39-year-old merchant switched to Ar茅valo, another candidate promising to change the system.
Zepeda said crime and the cost of living had risen while his salary stayed the same. He said his car was recently stolen and the police did nothing after taking his report.
Torres鈥 attempts to paint Ar茅valo as a threat to Guatemalan families was just 鈥減olitics,鈥 he said. He watched the candidates debate this week and seemed satisfied with Ar茅valo saying he had no intention of making changes that would affect Guatemala鈥檚 conservative social values.
Still, Torres is Guatemala鈥檚 best-known politician and she has built a formidable network across the country. The wide margin shown in the most recent polls, however, could make it harder for her to activate that network on Sunday.
Chang, the political analyst, asked: 鈥淲hat incentives do mayors from other parties 鈥 have to mobilize people and voters for a candidate that the polls tell us is not going to win?鈥
