WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is gone, the 好色tv Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
That鈥檚 usually for the United States and other parts of the world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said.
The globe is now in what鈥檚 considered a 鈥渘eutral鈥 condition and probably trending to an El Nino in late summer or fall, said climate scientist Michelle L鈥橦eureux, head of NOAA鈥檚 El Nino/La Nina forecast office.
鈥淚t鈥檚 over,鈥 said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University鈥檚 El Nino/La Nina forecasting. 鈥淢other Nature thought to get rid of this one because it鈥檚 enough.鈥
La Nina is a natural and temporary cooling of parts of the Pacific Ocean In the United States, because La Nina is connected to more Atlantic storms and deeper droughts and wildfires in the West, La Ninas often are more damaging and expensive than their more famous flip side, El Nino, experts said and studies show.
Generally, American agriculture is more damaged by La Nina than El Nino. If the globe jumps into El Nino it means more rain for the Midwestern corn belt and grains in general and could be beneficial, said Michael Ferrari, chief scientific officer of Climate Alpha, a firm that advises investors on financial decisions based on climate.
When there鈥檚 a La Nina, there are more storms in the Atlantic during hurricane season because it removes conditions that suppress storm formation. Neutral or El Nino conditions make it harder for storms to get going, but not impossible, scientists said.
Over the last three years, the U.S. has been hit by 14 hurricanes and tropical storms that caused a billion dollars or more in damage, totalling $252 billion in costs, according to NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam Smith said. La Nina and people building in harm's way were factors, he said.
Climate change is a major factor in worsening extreme weather, alongside La Nina, scientists said and numerous studies and reports show. Human-caused warming is like an escalator going up: It makes temperatures increase and extremes worse, while La Nina and El Nino are like jumping up and down on the escalator, according to Northern Illinois University atmospheric sciences professor Victor Gensini.
La Nina has also slightly dampened global average temperatures, keeping warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Nino slightly turbocharges those temperatures often setting records, scientists said.
La Nina tends to make Western Africa wet, but Eastern Africa, around Somalia, dry. The opposite happens in El Nino with drought-struck Somalia likely to get steady 鈥渟hort rains,鈥 Ehsan said. La Nina has wetter conditions for Indonesia, parts of Australia and the Amazon, but those areas are drier in El Nino, according to NOAA.
El Nino means more heat waves for India and Pakistan and other parts of South Asia and weaker monsoons there, Ehsan said.
This particular La Nina, which started in September 2020 but is considered three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came roaring back with
鈥淚鈥檓 sick of this La Nina,鈥 Ehsan said. L鈥橦eureux agreed, saying she鈥檚 ready to talk about something else.
The few other times that there鈥檚 been a triple-dip La Nina have come after strong El Ninos and there鈥檚 clear physics on why that happens. But that鈥檚 not what happened with this La Nina, L鈥橦eureux said. This one didn鈥檛 have a strong El Nino before it.
Even though this La Nina has confounded scientists in the past, they say the signs of it leaving are clear: Water in the key part of the central Pacific warmed to a bit more than the threshold for a La Nina in February, the atmosphere showed some changes and along the eastern Pacific near Peru, there鈥檚 already El Nino-like warming brewing on the coast, L鈥橦eureux said.
Think of a La Nina or El Nino as something that pushes the weather system from the Pacific with ripple effects worldwide, L鈥橦eureux said. When there are neutral conditions like now, there鈥檚 less push from the Pacific. That means other climatic factors, including the long-term warming trend, have more influence in day-to-day weather, she said.
Without an El Nino or La Nina, forecasters have a harder time predicting seasonal weather trends for summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has such a big footprint in weeks-long forecasts.
El Nino forecasts made in the spring are generally less reliable than ones made other times of year, so scientists are less sure about what will happen next, L鈥橦eureux said. But NOAA鈥檚 forecast said there鈥檚 a 60% chance that El Nino will take charge come fall.
There鈥檚 also a 5% chance that La Nina will return for an unprecedented fourth dip. L鈥橦eureux said she really doesn鈥檛 want that but the scientist in her would find that interesting. ___ Follow AP鈥檚 climate and environment coverage at ___ Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at ___ Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP鈥檚 climate initiative The AP is solely responsible for all content.
