MIAMI (AP) 鈥 It was a rare diplomatic gamble when the three leaders of Latin America's largest democracies inserted themselves into the high-stakes standoff between Venezuela鈥檚 Nicolas Maduro and his opponents over who won the country鈥檚 presidential election.
Dubbed the three amigos 鈥 all dyed-in-the-wool leftists who have been friendly with Maduro 鈥 the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico broke from decades of hands-off diplomacy toward Venezuela and their own reluctance to meddle in a neighbor鈥檚 sovereign affairs in a region where U.S. military interventions during the Cold War still generate resentment.
But some experts say the is losing steam before barely getting off the ground.
They cite misgivings by Mexico鈥檚 outgoing president, divisions among Latin America鈥檚 left and pressure from the U.S. on Maduro to recognize defeat and step aside. The main outcome so far, they say, has been to grant Maduro precious time to consolidate his rule and since the July 28 vote.
鈥淭he mediation effort is cautious, focusing on avoiding conflict and a new migration wave rather than defending democracy,鈥 said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan born analyst and founder of Aurora Macro Strategies, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in New York.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to be optimistic,鈥 adds Michael Shifter, the former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.
The diplomatic effort by Brazil's Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador and Colombia鈥檚 Gustavo Petro to resolve the dispute over the election outcome was initially heralded by many in Venezuela鈥檚 opposition and the U.S., which was happy to leave that political minefield to others.
Lula, who dispatched a close aide to Caracas to monitor the vote, refused to recognize Maduro鈥檚 claim of victory. Joined by L贸pez Obrador and Petro, he also called on Venezuelan authorities to publish detailed tallies of election results 鈥 as it has traditionally 鈥 to back their claim that Maduro won.
鈥淚f there are doubts ... then count the votes,鈥 L贸pez Obrador said in his first remarks after the election.
Opposition politicians have said they obtained tally sheets and that they show challenger Edmundo Gonz谩lez winning by a two-to-one margin, which has prompted the U.S. and dozens of other countries to say that Gonz谩lez garnered the most votes.
Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have not joined those countries, trying instead to get Maduro to release the disaggregated results. But as weeks have passed, and as the Venezuelan government's crackdown on the opposition has continued, the trio has lost some of its mojo. A long-discussed phone call between the presidents and Maduro has yet to take place.
Recently Lopez Obrador suggested he would take a step back from the effort to await the results of an , which is packed with Maduro loyalists and has almost never ruled against the government.
Meanwhile, Lula angered many in the opposition by saying he favors a do-over of the election.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know really how committed they are to a transition to democracy,鈥 said Javier Corrales, a professor of Latin American politics at Amherst College in Massachusetts. 鈥淢aybe in private circles they are putting pressure on Maduro to step down but in their public statements there鈥檚 no evidence that this is a priority. They mostly talk about stability and avoiding bloodshed.鈥
The U.S. has been all too willing to sit on the sideline after years of failed efforts by the Trump administration to oust Maduro. The Biden administration, while condemning the apparent steal, hasn鈥檛 retaliated or gone as far as the opposition in recognizing Gonz谩lez as president-elect. Instead, it prefers to give political space to the diplomatic dealmaking, especially since the next presidential term doesn鈥檛 start until January.
However, behind the scenes, it has been sharing its views with the trio, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently speaking to his Mexican counterpart, Alicia B谩rcena, while President Joe Biden and Canada鈥檚 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both dialed up Lula.
Unlike Venezuela's neighbors, the U.S. has real leverage over Maduro that could make it impossible for him to for the next six years. That includes debilitating oil sanctions that have all but shut the OPEC nation out of Western markets and are contributing to shortages and an ongoing economic crisis. There鈥檚 also a $15 million bounty for Maduro鈥檚 arrest to face drug trafficking charges in the U.S.
Any exit plan for Maduro would likely involve some sort of amnesty for the president and dozens of others who are accused of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses.
Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian political consultant, said that Lula and his partners emerged as 鈥渢he adults in the room鈥 after a string of U.S. policy failures.
鈥淲here have U.S. sanctions led us?鈥 said Traumann, who was previously the spokesman for Dilma Rousseff, a member of Lula's Workers' Party and president from 2011 to 2016. 鈥淥ver the past 20 years, the U.S. has tried sanctions, freezing foreign reserves, recognizing a puppet president and even supporting a military coup in 2021 鈥 all of which have failed.鈥
Still, he said it鈥檚 unrealistic for any foreign country 鈥 the U.S. or otherwise 鈥 to play more than a supporting role so long as Maduro has the support of the armed forces and powerful allies like Russia and China.
鈥淭his plan may not succeed 鈥 not because Lula and Petro are na茂ve or aren鈥檛 applying enough pressure on Maduro, but because there is little they can do to enforce it,鈥 he said. 鈥淎ny autocrat can survive international sanctions.鈥
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AP Writer David Biller in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Maria Verza in Mexico City and Astrid Suarez in Bogota, Colombia, contributed to this report.
