WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 U.S. presidents usually pay lip service at least to being leaders of the free world, at the helm of a mighty democracy and military that allies worldwide can rally around and reasonably depend upon for support in return.
Not so under President-elect Donald Trump, a critic of many existing U.S. alliances, whose this week had close European partners calling for a new era of self-reliance not dependent on American goodwill.
鈥淲e must not delegate forever our security to America,鈥 French Thursday.
Based on Trump鈥檚 first term and campaign statements, the U.S. will become less predictable, more chaotic, colder to allies and , and much more transactional in picking friends globally than before. and security will fundamentally change, both critics and supporters of Trump say.
His backers say he simply will be choosier about U.S. alliances and battles than previous presidents.
When it comes to the U.S. role on the world stage, no more talk of the country as leader of the free world, said Fiona Hill, a former Russia adviser to Trump and preceding U.S. presidents.
Maybe 鈥渢he free-for-all world, his leadership?鈥 Hill suggested in a recent . 鈥淚 mean, what exactly is it that we鈥檙e going to be leading here?鈥
Trump, with varying degrees of consistency, has been and and Taiwan, two democracies under threat that depend on U.S. military support to counter Russia and China.
Trump has shown little interest in the longstanding U.S. role as anchor of strategic alliances with European and Indo-Pacific democracies. Before the election, partners and adversaries already were in preparation for Trump's possible return.
European allies in particular bolstered efforts to build up their own and regional defenses, rather than rely on , the mutual-defense pact both Trump and running mate JD Vance have spoken of scathingly. Within hours of Trump鈥檚 win over Vice President Kamala Harris this week, defense chiefs of France and Germany scheduled talks to address the impact.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and have appeared to shape war strategies with hopes that Trump could allow them freer rein.
Victoria Coates, a security adviser to Trump in his first term, rejects any .
鈥淚 think he is extremely judicious about the application of the American military, and about potentially getting embroiled in conflicts we can鈥檛 resolve,鈥 she said recently on a security podcast.
As evidence of his engagement globally, Coates pointed to as it wages in Gaza and Lebanon.
She called Iran's nuclear program the 鈥済reatest concern鈥 abroad and suggested its progress toward the possibility of nuclear weapons meant than in his first term, when he surged sanctions on Iran in what he called a 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥 campaign.
Trump, long an , has been most consistent in pointing to U.S. support of Ukraine for possible policy change.
Philip Breedlove, a former Air Force general and top NATO commander, said he can see both positive expectations and deep concerns for Ukraine and NATO in the next four years under Trump.
While Trump鈥檚 NATO rhetoric during his first administration was often harsh, it didn鈥檛 lead to any actual U.S. troop reductions in Europe or decreased support for the alliance, Breedlove said. And of their gross domestic product on defense, compared with 10 in 2020 鈥 a showing that now negates a persistent Trump complaint.
More concerning, Breedlove said, is Trump鈥檚 vow to end the war in Ukraine right away.
While that goal is noble, 鈥渆nding wars on terms that are appropriate is one thing. Capitulating to an enemy in order to stop a conflict is a different thing. And that鈥檚 what worries me,鈥 Breedlove said.
He and others have warned that an end to the war that gives Russia additional territory in Ukraine will set a bad precedent. European nations fear it will embolden Putin to come after them.
So do supporters of Taiwan, a democratically run island that China has said it will one day annex, by force if necessary. Trump has ranged from saying to claiming he could charm Chinese President Xi Jinping out of threatening Taiwan.
鈥淥ne thing that does make me nervous about Trump vis-脿-vis the Taiwan Strait is his reliance on unpredictability, his reliance on being something of a chaotic actor in a situation that is finely balanced," said Paul Nadeau, an assistant professor of international affairs and political science at Temple University's Japan campus.
The situation is one 鈥渢hat requires a profound reading of very subtle signals between Taiwan, between the United States, between China,鈥 Nadeau said.
The world that Trump will face has changed, too, with Russia, North Korea, Iran and China further consolidating in to counter the West, and particularly the U.S.
In places where the U.S. has withdrawn, Russia, China and at times Iran have been quick to extend their influence, including in the Middle East.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly vowed to pull all U.S. forces out of Iraq and Syria, at times blindsiding Pentagon officials with sudden statements and tweets that left officials fumbling for answers.
A backlash from some Republican lawmakers and counterproposals by U.S. military leaders slowed those plans, including suggestions that some U.S. troops should remain in Syria to protect oil sites. The U.S. still has about 900 troops in Syria, which could plunge under Trump.
The based on a new agreement between the Biden administration and Baghdad. The plan would wrap up the U.S.-led coalition鈥檚 mission to fight by next year but likely shift at least some U.S. troops to northern Iraq to support the fight against IS in Syria.
Trump's first term 鈥 followed by Joe Biden's foreign policy increasingly becoming consumed by unsuccessful efforts to reach cease-fires in the Middle East 鈥 already have spurred allies to speak of building up their own military strength and that of smaller regional alliances for security.
鈥淔actored into calculations is there鈥檚 going to be less United States than before鈥 on the world stage, Hill said. 鈥淭here can鈥檛 be this dangerous dependency on what happens in Washington, D.C.鈥
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AP reporters Didi Tang and Tara Copp in Washington and Ayaka McGill in Tokyo contributed.
