BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) 鈥 Nearly two years after Sweden formally applied to join NATO, its membership now hinges on convincing one country 鈥 Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 Hungary 鈥 to formally ratify its bid to join the military alliance.
Hungary鈥檚 nationalist government has delayed holding a vote on Sweden鈥檚 membership for more than 18 months, creating tension with Stockholm and drawing to finally move forward on ratification.
Yet Orb谩n鈥檚 party this week announced it will on Monday, suggesting the delays 鈥 and the diplomatic tensions 鈥 could be drawing to a close. While neither Hungarian nor Swedish officials have specified what led to Hungary dropping its objections, there are indications that the two countries are closing in on an agreement for Hungary to acquire Swedish-built military equipment.
Jens Wenzel, a Sweden-based defense analyst with Nordic Defence Analysis, a consultancy, said that Hungary鈥檚 delays in ratifying Sweden鈥檚 NATO bid has in part been a form of pressure on Stockholm 鈥渢o come up with some kind of needed equipment acquisition deals鈥 for the Hungarian military.
鈥淪weden has a very strong defense industry, and there is probably an interest from Hungary to acquire some of that defense material,鈥 he said. 鈥淰iktor Orb谩n wants to gain the maximum out of utilizing this delay just before we close the (ratification) deal on Monday, so deals probably could be struck with Sweden in terms of arms supplies.鈥
All of NATO鈥檚 31 other member countries have lent their support to Sweden鈥檚 membership, and speculation on the reasons for Hungary鈥檚 enduring resistance has abounded.
Orb谩n says his government is in favor of bringing Sweden into NATO, but that lawmakers in the prime minister鈥檚 governing Fidesz party remain unconvinced 鈥 from some Swedish politicians that he says have excoriated the quality of Hungary鈥檚 democracy.
As for specific demands from Orb谩n鈥檚 government on how Sweden should mend the hurt feelings, few have been forthcoming. But Wenzel, the defense analyst, said there is interest in Hungary in acquiring, among other equipment, Swedish-built Gripen fighter jets.
Hungary currently leases 14 JAS 39 Gripen jets from Stockholm, and has expressed its intention to expand the fleet. Since 2022, high-ranking defense officials have indicated that Hungary was planning to add four new Gripen jets to its arsenal.
Speaking in Poland on Monday, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said the jets would be among the topics of conversation when he visits Budapest on Friday for negotiations with Orb谩n.
鈥淚t is no secret that we discuss how we can develop our cooperation concerning the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet system, which both Sweden and Hungary use. We will continue to discuss this when we meet,鈥 Kristersson said.
鈥淲e will announce whether this means a new deal,鈥 he added.
S谩muel 脕goston Mr谩z, director of the Orb谩n-allied Nezopont Intezet think tank, said that Hungary dropping its objections stems from Sweden鈥檚 willingness to further develop its political and economic cooperation with Budapest, which could include expanding the two countries鈥 military relationship.
鈥淲e will know the details of the military and economic cooperation (after the prime ministers鈥 meeting) on Friday, but it will certainly not be insignificant,鈥 he said.
Hungary using its vote on Sweden鈥檚 NATO accession to leverage a deal on procuring military equipment would not be without precedent. Turkey, which ratified Sweden鈥檚 bid in January, made its support for Stockholm鈥檚 membership from the United States.
Hours after Turkey鈥檚 ratification, the Biden administration announced its .
Orb谩n鈥檚 critics in the European Union have alleged that he has stalled on Sweden鈥檚 NATO bid to extract concessions from the bloc. The EU has frozen billions in funding to Hungary over alleged breaches of rule-of-law and democracy standards, and demanded that Budapest take steps to safeguard judicial independence and human rights and tackle corruption.
Hungary鈥檚 government has railed against Swedish officials that supported freezing the funds, and blamed them for a breakdown in trust between the two countries.
Mr谩z, the think tank director, said many of Orb谩n鈥檚 voters are 鈥渁ngry鈥 at Sweden for helping to block the EU funds, and that the government鈥檚 reluctance to ratify its NATO accession has been a gesture to Orb谩n鈥檚 conservative base.
鈥淭hey expect that in the case of Sweden, Hungary should demand the respect it deserves and do everything it can so that Sweden does not abuse its position and obstruct EU funds or any other foreign policy ambitions of Hungary,鈥 he said.
鈥淗ungary has proven its sovereignty and shown that it is impossible to influence its behavior by raising eyebrows and making loud criticisms,鈥 he added.
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Associated Press writer Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark contributed to this story.
