A pair of viral social media posts claim that Canada plans to ban all energy exports to the United States starting next month. The claim is misleading. While a reduced flow of oil, gas and electricity 鈥 coupled with retaliatory tariffs 鈥 has been floated as a possible response to U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariff threats, no plan to that effect has been put in place, much less one that turns off the taps completely.
A Jan. 25 on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, states: 鈥淐anada is planning to fight back against Trump鈥檚 tariffs by cutting off all energy supplies to the U.S. in February.鈥 A second by another account makes the same claim word for word.
Between them, the two posts garnered some 13.8 million views as of publication.
Rating: Misleading
Canada has not landed on a concrete plan to fight the would-be tariffs, which could be imposed as early as Saturday. The federal government is building a bailout package to help workers and businesses if U.S. tariffs 鈥 threatened at 25 per cent across the board 鈥 come down. But the scale of the relief will depend on the scope of the tariffs, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said.
鈥淲e are not sitting on a plan in Ottawa that would, as the initial response to some scenario, look to put export restrictions on oil and gas. Any conversation like that would be very, very much as a last resort where the country simply had no other reasonable way to make the Americans understand that their policy decision was negative for the American economy,鈥 he told CBC's "" radio program Tuesday.
鈥淭here鈥檚 been a lot of misinformation in this space.鈥
However, some politicians have suggested halting energy exports to the United States.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford in December the province would cut off energy that currently flows into Michigan, New York and Wisconsin should the tax take effect. The province powered 1.5 million homes in the United States in 2023, Ontario鈥檚 economic development minister, Victor Fedeli.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said 鈥everything is on the table鈥 when it comes to retaliation measures.
Former central banker Mark Carney, who is also running for the Liberal leadership, last weekend that curbing electricity exports should remain an option in a trade fight with Trump.
Several leaders have been vocal dissenters to the 鈥淭eam Canada鈥 approach. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have staunchly opposed turning off the oil faucet. Moe also said his province is 鈥.鈥
The vast majority of Canada鈥檚 crude oil exports go to the United States, accounting for about of America鈥檚 oil consumption.
Could Ottawa order an export ban?
The federal government could override opposition from some premiers to curtailing the country鈥檚 energy exports, experts say.
Ottawa could lengthen its list of goods that are subject to export controls, requiring a permit along with certain conditions.
鈥淔or example, you could have a 好色tv supplier in Alberta wanting to supply petroleum to a U.S. buyer, and as part of that contract 鈥 to make it a realizable contract 鈥 the 好色tv supplier would need to make an application for a permit to the 好色tv government,鈥 said Clifford Sosnow, who heads the Fasken law firm鈥檚 international trade and investment group.
鈥淭ypically something of this magnitude would go by way of an order-in-council鈥 鈥 effectively a cabinet order, which requires no new legislation 鈥 Sosnow said.
Sanctions are another option, albeit an extreme and unlikely one.
鈥淭hey'll list a country as a sanctioned entity or individuals as sanctioned entities and say you cannot engage in any transactions with those countries and or persons without a permit,鈥 Sosnow said.
But Canada is 鈥渃learly not going to sanction the United States鈥 or its companies, he added.
More likely than either a sanction or a total energy ban is a higher price tag imposed by the government on American buyers, said Vass Bednar, executive director of McMaster University鈥檚 master of public policy program.
She cited a flat fee or a percentage tariff based on the value of the good. Those measures still inflict 鈥減ocketbook pain鈥 but avoid the chaos that a full-on energy embargo would trigger.
鈥淎 ban seems to do more than just match what the U.S. is pledging; it seems like an act of escalation,鈥 Bednar said.
In the interview Tuesday, LeBlanc called for a 鈥渕easured, scaled, proportionate" response. He also elaborated on Trudeau's comment that all options remain open.
鈥淓verything鈥檚 on the table, but you don't start 鈥 you normally start with an appetizer, then you have a main course,鈥 LeBlanc said.
Sources
The claim can be found on X () and ()
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