DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) 鈥 Israel鈥檚 attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed.
The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel鈥檚 attack early Saturday, particularly as it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force within Iran鈥檚 theocracy that so far has remained silent about any possible damage it suffered from the assault. Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces 鈥 not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It also potentially further restrains the Guard鈥檚 ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran鈥檚 Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photos of two military bases near Tehran also targeted by Israel show that sites there that Iran uses in its ballistic missile manufacturing have been destroyed, further squeezing its program.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know if Iranian production has been crippled as some people are saying or just damaged,鈥 said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. 鈥淲e鈥檝e seen enough imagery to show there鈥檚 an impact.鈥
Iran鈥檚 mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP, but sent a previous statement acknowledging it targeted 鈥渕issile manufacturing facilities鈥 in the attack.
Images show major building at Shahroud base destroyed
High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken for and analyzed by the AP showed the damage at the Guard鈥檚 Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the , which is used by Iran鈥檚 civilian space program.
The images showed a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, the shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely from officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site's main gate nearby.
Three small buildings just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
Iran has not acknowledged any attack at Shahroud. However, given the damage done to multiple structures, it suggested the Israeli attack included pinpoint strikes on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the assault 鈥 further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as being the culprit.
鈥淲e can鈥檛 100% exclude the possibility it鈥檚 something else, but it鈥檚 almost certain this building got damaged because of an Israeli attack,鈥 Hinz said.
Given that the large building had been surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it handled high explosives, said Hinz, who long has studied the site. That central site likely deals with solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
Large boxes next to the building likely are missile motor crates as well, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran's Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran has claimed is able to reach Mach 15 鈥 which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran's attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.
The strike at Shahroud, coupled with others across the country, likely have put more pressure on Iran's theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main weapon arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.
鈥淒ue to preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran鈥檚 armed forces, and timely reaction by the country鈥檚 air defense, limited damage was caused to some of the points hit," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed in a meeting with foreign diplomats Tuesday in Tehran. "Necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to operational state.鈥
US worries Guard's space program a cover for missile research
A short distance from the destroyed buildings sits a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has conducted a series of successful missions putting satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, .
The U.S. intelligence community鈥檚 2024 worldwide threat assessment said Iran's continued development of satellite launch vehicles 鈥渨ould shorten the timeline to produce鈥 an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for 鈥渟everal鈥 nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, .
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003. Parchin, one of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
鈥淟ike with Iran's nuclear program, you don鈥檛 build the system itself, you build all the technology under cover of a civilian program,鈥 Hinz said.
Then, Iran could make the decision to pursue the weapon 鈥 or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.
But for now, the satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of Israel's attack.
鈥淭he picture that is emerging is one of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities, both of which would be intended to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further strikes if they attempt retaliation,鈥 an analysis published Monday by two experts at Britain鈥檚 Royal United Services Institute said.